Data compiled by the US research firm Descartes Datamyne shows that in September, the number of container ships shipped from Asia to the US was 1,696,044 (converted to 20-foot equivalent units), a 10% decrease year-on-year. This is the first time in three months that shipments have fallen below the previous year’s levels, with the decline in shipments originating from China widening.

Container shipments originating from mainland China to the US decreased by 18% year-on-year, a significant increase from the 6% decline in August. The US-China tariff conflict has brought cargo transportation to a standstill.

Normally, July to September is a period when businesses stock up for the year-end trade war in the US, leading to a surge in goods shipments. However, due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations, some businesses have shipped Chinese goods ahead of schedule or shifted their sourcing to countries outside of China, resulting in a significant decrease in shipments originating from China.

Cargo shipments originating from Southeast Asia and South Asia, however, continued to grow. Vietnam, which ranks second only to China in container shipments to the US after China, saw a 19% year-on-year increase in September. Shipments from India increased by 2%, and those from Malaysia increased by 86%. Shipments from Thailand decreased by only 1%, a relatively small drop.

On the other hand, container shipments from South Korea to the US decreased by 18%, from Taiwan by 19%, and from Japan by 11%.

By commodity category, furniture, the largest category in terms of shipment volume, decreased by 9%. Shipments of consumer-related goods such as toys and sporting goods (down 20%) also declined. Electronic and electrical products (down 18%) and automotive-related products (down 16%) also performed poorly.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its container import forecast on October 8th, showing that US container imports are expected to decrease by 12% year-on-year in October and by 19% in November. Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s head of supply chain and tariff policy, pointed out, “Because retailers had already stocked up on imports before the tariffs took effect, the peak season for this year is effectively over.”